Labour Market Bulletin - Manitoba: June 2017

This Labour Market Bulletin provides an analysis of Labour Force Survey results for the province of Manitoba, including the regions of Winnipeg, Northern Manitoba and Southern Manitoba.

Overview

Employment

Employment in Manitoba's labour market increased in the second quarter (Q2) by 4,800. In this quarter, individuals employed full-time increased by 4,100, while the number of individuals employed part-time increased by 700. Since last quarter, public sector employment fell by 0.7%, (loss of 1,200 jobs), while private sector employment grew by 1.4%, (gain of 5,700 jobs). Self-employment increased by 400 jobs since last quarter.Footnote 1

With recent austerity measures implemented by the provincial government, the Conference Board of Canada's forecasts Manitoba's economic growth for 2017 at 2.1% and an average annual growth rate of 1% from 2018 until 2021.Footnote 2 On a positive note, the provisional application for the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the European Union is to go into effect on September 21, 2017.Footnote 3 The European Union is Manitoba's third largest trading partner with a reported $640 million in merchandise exported in 2015, and the elimination of tariffs and greater market access should greatly benefit the provincial economy in the future.Footnote 4

Unemployment

The number of Manitobans unemployed decreased by 3,000 in the second quarter of 2017. Manitoba's unemployment rate fell in the second quarter, decreasing by 0.4 of a percentage point to 5.4%. Manitoba continues to have one of the lowest unemployment rates in Western Canada, well below the national average of 6.5%.

Manitoba Quarterly Labour Force Statistics
Seasonally Adjusted Data 2nd Quarter 2017 1st Quarter 2017 2nd Quarter 2016 Quarterly Variation Yearly Variation
Number % Number %
Population 15 + ('000) 1,011.9 1,007.4 997.4 4.5 0.4 14.5 1.5
Labour Force ('000) 678.7 676.9 676.0 1.8 0.3 2.7 0.4
Employment ('000) 642.3 637.5 634.9 4.8 0.8 7.4 1.2
    Full-Time ('000) 520.7 516.6 514.6 4.1 0.8 6.1 1.2
    Part-Time ('000) 121.6 120.9 120.3 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.1
Unemployment ('000) 36.4 39.4 41.1 -3.0 -7.6 -4.7 -11.4
Unemployment Rate 5.4 5.8 6.1 -0.4 - -0.7 -
Participation Rate (%) 67.1 67.2 67.8 -0.1 - -0.7 -
Employment Rate (%) 63.5 63.3 63.7 0.2 - -0.2 -

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0087

Manitoba quarterly employment and unemployment rate
Manitoba quarterly employment and unemployment rate. The data table for this graph is located below
Show data table: Manitoba quarterly employment and unemployment rate
Manitoba Quarterly Employment and Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate (%) Employment ('000)
2Q2011 5.6 610.1
3Q2011 5.5 633.8
4Q2011 5.5 613.3
1Q2012 5.5 616.0
2Q2012 5.2 621.5
3Q2012 5.4 621.8
4Q2012 5.3 626.7
1Q2013 4.8 630.9
2Q2013 5.5 626.0
3Q2013 5.5 625.6
4Q2013 5.8 621.6
1Q2014 5.4 623.5
2Q2014 5.5 622.8
3Q2014 5.4 626.9
4Q2014 5.2 633.7
1Q2015 5.6 637.1
2Q2015 5.5 636.1
3Q2015 5.6 635.1
4Q2015 5.8 636.9
1Q2016 6.0 631.9
2Q2016 6.1 634.9
3Q2016 6.2 633.8
4Q2016 6.3 632.8
1Q2017 5.8 637.5
2Q2017 5.4 642.3
Manitoba quarterly employment growth
Manitoba quarterly employment growth. The data table for this graph is located below
Show data table: Manitoba quarterly employment growth
Manitoba Quarterly Employment Growth
Manitoba Canada
2Q2011 -0.2% 0.3%
3Q2011 0.2% 0.4%
4Q2011 0.4% 0.0%
1Q2012 0.4% 0.1%
2Q2012 0.9% 0.9%
3Q2012 0.0% 0.2%
4Q2012 0.8% 0.5%
1Q2013 0.7% 0.3%
2Q2013 -0.8% 0.3%
3Q2013 -0.1% 0.2%
4Q2013 -0.6% 0.2%
1Q2014 0.3% 0.1%
2Q2014 -0.1% 0.0%
3Q2014 0.7% 0.2%
4Q2014 1.1% 0.3%
1Q2015 0.5% 0.2%
2Q2015 -0.2% 0.2%
3Q2015 -0.2% 0.3%
4Q2015 0.3% 0.1%
1Q2016 -0.8% 0.1%
2Q2016 0.5% 0.2%
3Q2016 -0.2% 0.2%
4Q2016 -0.2% 0.6%
1Q2017 0.7% 0.5%
2Q2017 0.8% 0.4%

The unemployment rate of those aged 15-24 decreased this quarter by 1.6 percentage points to 11%. By comparison, the unemployment rate for those aged 25 years and older decreased by 0.2 percentage points, to 4.3% since last quarter. Compared to last year, youth unemployment decreased by 2.0 percentage points, and the unemployment rate for those 25 years and older remained relatively unchanged, decreasing 0.4 percentage points.

Men aged 15 to 24 years old had the highest unemployment rate at 11.3% this quarter. That said, their unemployment rate decreased by 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the unemployment rate for young women remained unchanged. The unemployment rates of young men and women were each about 2.5 times more than that of men and women 25 years and older.

Manitoba Quarterly Unemployment Rates, by Gender and Age
Seasonally Adjusted Data 2nd Quarter 2017 (%) 1st Quarter 2017 (%) 2nd Quarter 2016 (%) Quarterly Variation
(% points)
Yearly Variation
(% points)
Total 5.4 5.8 6.1 -0.4 -0.7
25 years and over 4.3 4.5 4.7 -0.2 -0.4
Men - 25 years and over 4.6 4.8 5.1 -0.2 -0.5
Women - 25 years and over 4.0 4.2 4.3 -0.2 -0.3
15 to 24 years 11.0 12.6 13.0 -1.6 -2.0
Men - 15 to 24 years 11.3 14.4 14.5 -3.1 -3.2
Women - 15 to 24 years 10.6 10.6 11.5 0.0 -0.9

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0087

In the second quarter (Q2) of 2017, the total population aged 15+ in Manitoba was 1.0 million. The Indigenous population living off-reserve accounted for 11.5% of that, or 116,700 people. Employment among Indigenous people in Manitoba stood at 66,700, representing an increase of +2,200 (+3.4%) from a year earlier (Q2 2016). All employment gains were in full-time positions (+2,900 or +5.5%), partially offset by a decrease in part-time employment (-700 or -5.7%).

The unemployment rate among the Indigenous population was 11.7% in Q2 2017, representing a decrease of -0.9 percentage points (pp) from the previous year. Among the non-Indigenous population, the unemployment rate was 4.3% (-0.8pp). Between Q2 2016 and Q2 2017, the participation rate of Indigenous people stood at 64.8% (-0.4pp) while among non-Indigenous population, it was 67.8% (-0.7pp). The employment rate for Indigenous people was 57.2% (+0.2pp); for the non-Indigenous population, it stood at 64.9% (-0.1pp).

Manitoba - Labour Market Indicators for Indigenous People
3-month moving averages
Seasonally unadjusted data
Indigenous Yearly variation
Indigenous
Non-Indigenous Yearly variation
non-Indigenous
Q2 2017 Q2 2016 number % Q2 2017 Q2 2016 number %
Population 15 + ('000) 116.7 113.3 3.4 3.0 895.1 884.1 11.0 1.2
Labour Force ('000) 75.6 73.9 1.7 2.3 607.2 605.8 1.4 0.2
Employment ('000) 66.7 64.5 2.2 3.4 581.1 574.9 6.2 1.1
    Full-Time ('000) 55.3 52.4 2.9 5.5 470.4 466.3 4.1 0.9
    Part-Time ('000) 11.5 12.2 -0.7 -5.7 110.7 108.6 2.1 1.9
Unemployment ('000) 8.9 9.3 -0.4 -4.3 26.1 30.8 -4.7 -15.3
Unemployment Rate 11.7 12.6 -0.9 - 4.3 5.1 -0.8 -
Participation Rate 64.8 65.2 -0.4 - 67.8 68.5 -0.7 -
Employment Rate 57.2 57.0 0.2 - 64.9 65.0 -0.1 -

Notes: The Labour Force Survey excludes those living on-reserve.

            Estimates are based on three-month moving averages.

            Totals may not add due to rounding.

            Totals may be different from other tables due to adjustments done to indigenous statistics in the Labour
            Force Survey.

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - ESDC custom table.

Employment by industry

In the second quarter of 2017, Manitoba's goods-producing sector expanded by almost 700 jobs, and by some 7,400 more workers compared to the same time last year. However, this sector saw losses in the utilities, (-200), and in the forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas industries, (-100), this quarter. The job losses in both industries were offset by strong employment gains in the construction industry (+1, 100) in the second quarter.

Manitoba's services-producing industries demonstrated stronger growth with an increase of 4,000 jobs in the second quarter. Employment this quarter increased mainly in the trade industry, (2,200), and in the accommodation and food services industry, (2,100). Employment continued to decline in other services, decreasing by 500 jobs during the second quarter, and by 2,300 jobs since the same time last year.

Public administration demonstrated strong employment growth from the same time last year at 6.3%, yet this has slowed to 0.6% since last quarter. Additionally, the short-term employment outlook for this industry is not positive, as the Government of Manitoba is currently facing a budget deficit and has already taken steps to move towards a balanced budget. Earlier this year, the provincial government instructed the regional health authorities to eliminate 15% of its management positions, with 197 management positions recently cut across the province.Footnote 5 The provincial government also announced it intends to eliminate 15% of all provincial Crown Corporations managerial positions. Further job reductions at the Crown Corporations may take effect later.Footnote 6

Manitoba Quarterly Labour Force Statistics, by Industry
Seasonally Adjusted Data ('000) 2nd Quarter 2017 1st Quarter 2017 2nd Quarter 2016 Quarterly Variation Yearly Variation
Number % Number %
Total employed, all industries 642.3 637.5 634.9 4.8 0.8 7.4 1.2
Goods-producing sector 153.6 152.9 150.3 0.7 0.5 3.3 2.2
Agriculture 23.3 23.3 24.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -2.9
Forestry, fishing, mining,
quarrying, oil and gas
7.3 7.4 6.4 -0.1 -1.4 0.9 14.1
Utilities 9.4 9.6 9.8 -0.2 -2.1 -0.4 -4.1
Construction 49.4 48.3 48.3 1.1 2.3 1.1 2.3
Manufacturing 64.3 64.3 61.8 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.0
Services-producing sector 488.7 484.7 484.6 4.0 0.8 4.1 0.8
Trade 91.3 89.1 91.1 2.2 2.5 0.2 0.2
Transportation and warehousing 36.7 37.0 35.3 -0.3 -0.8 1.4 4.0
Finance, insurance, real
estate and leasing
36.9 37.2 33.8 -0.3 -0.8 3.1 9.2
Professional, scientific
and technical services
28.3 28.2 27.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 2.2
Business, building
and other support services
18.8 17.9 17.9 0.9 5.0 0.9 5.0
Educational services 49.5 49.8 50.8 -0.3 -0.6 -1.3 -2.6
Health care and social
assistance
101.5 101.6 101.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3
Information, culture and
reccreation
23.6 23.7 23.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.4 1.7
Accommodation and food
services
41.9 39.8 42.5 2.1 5.3 -0.6 -1.4
Other services 26.5 27.0 28.8 -0.5 -1.9 -2.3 -8.0
Public administration 33.6 33.4 31.6 0.2 0.6 2.0 6.3

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0088

Regional analysis

Since the second quarter of 2016, employment growth occurred in all the regions, except for the Parklands and North region. Employment in the Parklands and North region decreased by 3.3% since last year, and can be attributed to job losses in the utilities (-58.3%) and public administration industries (-33.3%).Footnote 7 The Parklands and North region was the only region that had its unemployment rate increase in the province, growing by 2.4 percentage points since the same time last year. Employment opportunities with the utilities industry may become limited as the Keeyask Generating Station and the Bipole III transmission line projects near completion. Manitoba Hydro also offered a voluntary departure program to eliminate 900 positions within the Crown Corporation.Footnote8

Severe flood damage to the single rail line into Churchill has led to the closure of all rail service until next spring. Supplies are currently being flown into the community and Churchill has now been made eligible for the Nutrition North food subsidy.Footnote 9 The rail line closure continues to disrupt a number of services and has had an adverse economic impact on the community.

Manitoba Quarterly Labour Force Statistics, by Economic Region
Not Seasonally Adjusted Data Employment Unemployment Rate
2nd Quarter 2017
('000)
2nd Quarter 2016
('000)
Yearly Variation
(%)
2nd Quarter 2017
(%)
2nd Quarter 2016
(%)
Yearly Variation
(% points)
Manitoba 647.7 639.3 1.3 5.1 5.9 -0.8
Economic Regions
Southeast 62.5 62.3 0.3 4.4 4.7 -0.3
South Central and North Central 55.0 54.7 0.5 3.7 4.2 -0.5
Southwest 55.6 54.0 3.0 5.8 6.6 -0.8
Winnipeg 391.6 385.9 1.5 5.4 6.3 -0.9
Interlake 47.6 45.8 3.9 3.1 6.9 -3.8
Parklands and North 35.4 36.6 -3.3 6.6 4.2 2.4

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0122

Employment in Winnipeg improved slightly, with growth of 1.5% over the previous year. The manufacturing industry demonstrated strong growth, adding around 3,900 jobs since the second quarter of 2016.Footnote 10 Contributing to this strong employment growth is the deal between New Flyer Industries and the State of New Jersey for an order of 772 commuter coaches.Footnote 11 However, the recent voluntary buyout by Manitoba Hydro appears to have impacted employment in the utilities industry, with employment decreasing by 500 people since last quarter.

Manitoba quarterly employment growth by economic region, Q2-2016 to Q2-2017
Manitoba quarterly employment growth by economic reqion. The data table for this graph is located below
Show data table: Manitoba quarterly employment growth, by economic region

Interlake 3.9%
Southwest 3.0%
Winnipeg 1.5%
South Central and North Central 0.5%
Southeast 0.3%
Parklands and North -3.3%

The largest employment increase was in the Interlake region where employment grew by 3.9% since the second quarter of 2016. Employment in the finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing industry increased by 86.6% since last year to 2,800 this quarter. This was in spite of Great West Life's announced layoff of 450 positions at its Winnipeg head office. There was also strong growth in the business, building and other support services industry, with employment increasing by 1,800 over the same period. The strong employment gains have reduced the region's unemployment rate to 3.1% this past year.

Note

In preparing this document, the authors have taken care to provide clients with labour market information that is timely and accurate at the time of publication. Since labour market conditions are dynamic, some of the information presented here may have changed since this document was published. Users are encouraged to also refer to other sources for additional information on the local economy and labour market. Information contained in this document does not necessarily reflect official policies of Employment and Social Development Canada.

Prepared by: Labour Market Information (LMI) Directorate, Service Canada, Manitoba.
For further information, please contact the LMI team.
For information on the Labour Force Survey, please visit the Statistics Canada website.

Footnotes

Footnote 1

Statistics Canada. Table 282-0089 — Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by class of worker and sex, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, monthly (person), CANSIM (database). (accessed July 7, 2017)

Return to footnote 1 referrer

Footnote 2

The Conference Board of Canada. Provincial Outlook Executive Summary: Spring 2017. Ottawa: the Conference Board of Canada.

Return to footnote 2 referrer

Footnote 3

CBC News July 8, 2017. “Canada, EU to provisionally apply CETA in September”.

Return to footnote 3 referrer

Footnote 4

Global Affairs Canada. Accessed July 8, 2017.

Return to footnote 4 referrer

Footnote 5

CBC News June 6, 2017. Glowascki, Laura. “At least 197 management positions cut at Manitoba health authorities, agencies”.

Return to footnote 5 referrer

Footnote 6

CBC News February 6, 2017. “MPI, Liqour and Lotteries to trim 15%, Manitoba premier says”.

Return to footnote 6 referrer

Footnote 7

Statistics Canada. Table 282-0124 — Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by economic region based on 2011 Census boundaries and North American Industry Classification (NAICS), 3-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality, quarterly (persons). CANSIM (database). (accessed July 10, 2017)

Return to footnote 7 referrer

Footnote 8

CBC News June 1, 2017. “More than 800 Manitoba Hydro employees take voluntary buyout”.

Return to footnote 8 referrer

Footnote 9

CBC News June 26, 2017. “Federal food subsidy extended to Churchill following rail line loss”

Return to footnote 9 referrer

Footnote 10

Statistics Canada. Table 282-0124 — Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by economic region based on 2011 Census boundaries and North American Industry Classification (NAICS), 3-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality, quarterly (persons). CANSIM (database). (accessed July 10, 2017)

Return to footnote 10 referrer

Footnote 11

New Flyer September 6, 2016. “NJ Transit Contract Update and Reaffirmation of 2016 Bus/Coach Delivery Guidance”.

Return to footnote 11 referrer

Date modified: