Labour Market Bulletin - Ontario: October 2015

This Labour Market Bulletin provides an analysis of Labour Force Survey results for the province of Ontario, including the regions of Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula, Kingston–Pembroke, Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie, London, Muskoka–Kawarthas, Northeast, Northwest, Ottawa, Stratford–Bruce Peninsula, Toronto and Windsor–Sarnia.

Overview

Labour Force Trends – Ontario employment increased in October

  • Employment in Ontario increased by 29,200 in October, after a decrease of 33,800 in September
  • Growth in full-time work (+26,800) was complemented by a rise in part-time work (+2,300)
  • The unemployment rate inched down to 6.8%, from 6.9% in September

Employment in Ontario recovered (+29,200) in October to 6.94 million after failing to increase in the previous three months. There were gains in both full-time (+26,800) and part-time (+2,300) employment, with the provincial unemployment rate dropping to 6.8%, from 6.9% in September, as unemployment fell by 10,100.

In Canada, employment increased by 44,400 in October, with a small increase in full-time work (+9,000) buttressed by a strong growth in part-time work (+35,400). This gain in employment exceeded expectations from economists polled by Bloomberg, with the increase likely boosted by temporary work related to the recent federal election.Footnote 1 The national unemployment rate fell from 7.1% to 7.0%, with unemployment decreasing by 12,200.

In the United States, total non-farm payroll employment increased by 271,000 in October, which represented the strongest gain in the U.S. in 2015, Footnote 2 while the federal unemployment rate fell from 5.1% to 5.0%, its lowest level since 2008. In addition, average hourly earnings increased by 2.5% in October, which was the sharpest growth since 2009 and contributed to the positive jobs report in the U.S. However, the participation rate of 62.4% remains historically low, which is a lingering concern for American policy-makers, who are debating raising interest rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade.

From October 2014 to October 2015, employment in Ontario increased by 7,500, with full-time employment expanding by 77,300 positions, but part-time employment losing 69,800 positions on a net basis. With unemployment having increased by 3,600, the unemployment rate edged up by 0.1 percentage point from 12 months ago, while the participation rate fell by 0.6 percentage points.

The Ontario unemployment rate for youth aged 15 to 24 remained unchanged at 15.0% in October. However, the unemployment rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than 12 months ago, while the participation and employment rates both remained significantly below their level from a year ago.

Ontario monthly labour force statistics
Seasonally adjusted monthly data October 2015 September 2015 October 2014 Monthly variation Yearly variation
Number % Number %
Population 15 + ('000) 11,425.7 11,414.7 11,304.2 11.0 0.1 121.5 1.1
Labour force ('000) 7,441.3 7,422.3 7,430.3 19.0 0.3 11.0 0.1
Employment ('000) 6,937.2 6,908.0 6,929.7 29.2 0.4 7.5 0.1
Full-time ('000) 5,634.7 5,607.9 5,557.4 26.8 0.5 77.3 1.4
Part-time ('000) 1,302.4 1,300.1 1,372.2 2.3 0.2 -69.8 -5.1
Unemployment ('000) 504.2 514.3 500.6 -10.1 -2.0 3.6 0.7
Unemployment rate (%) 6.8 6.9 6.7 -0.1 - 0.1 -
Participation rate (%) 65.1 65.0 65.7 0.1 - -0.6 -
Employment rate (%) 60.7 60.5 61.3 0.2 - -0.6 -

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey – CANSIM Table 282-0087

Ontario monthly employment and unemployment rate
Ontario monthly employment and unemployment rate. The data table for this graph is located below
Show data table Ontario monthly employment and unemployment rate
Ontario monthly employment and unemployment rate
Unemployment rate (%) Employment ('000)
Oct 2013 7.5 6,845.5
Nov 2013 7.4 6,856.1
Dec 2013 7.7 6,847.3
Jan 2014 7.4 6,841.9
Feb 2014 7.5 6,861.1
Mar 2014 7.3 6,865.1
Apr 2014 7.3 6,876.3
May 2014 7.2 6,878.7
Jun 2014 7.3 6,853.5
Jul 2014 7.5 6,878.3
Aug 2014 7.3 6,877.9
Sep 2014 7.3 6,880.9
Oct 2014 6.7 6,929.7
Nov 2014 7.0 6,896.7
Dec 2014 7.0 6,885.0
Jan 2015 6.9 6,886.3
Feb 2015 6.9 6,900.1
Mar 2015 6.9 6,902.1
Apr 2015 6.8 6,887.8
May 2015 6.5 6,931.7
Jun 2015 6.5 6,945.7
Jul 2015 6.4 6,945.7
Aug 2015 6.8 6,941.8
Sep 2015 6.9 6,908.0
Oct 2015 6.8 6,937.2

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

Ontario monthly unemployment rates, by gender and age
Seasonally adjusted data October 2015
%
September 2015
%
October 2014
%
Monthly variation
(% points)
Yearly variation
(% points)
Total 6.8 6.9 6.7 -0.1 0.1
25 years and over 5.4 5.6 5.5 -0.2 -0.1
Men - 25 years and over 5.3 5.7 5.6 -0.4 -0.3
Women - 25 years and over 5.4 5.4 5.3 0.0 0.1
15 to 24 years 15.0 15.0 13.8 0.0 1.2
Men - 15 to 24 years 17.2 16.3 15.8 0.9 1.4
Women - 15 to 24 years 12.8 13.7 11.7 -0.9 1.1

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey – CANSIM Table 282-0087

Employment by industry

Goods-producing sector declined for third consecutive month

Employment decreased in the goods-producing sector by 3,300 in October 2015, its third consecutive monthly decline. The losses were most notable in construction (-8,400), while manufacturing rebounded from two consecutive declines with a gain of 10,800 in employment.

The provincial construction industry has had a mixed year, with employment losses in five of the past eight months. In addition, after a strong showing in August, both residential and non-residential building permits fell notably in September, led by lower construction intentions primarily for multi-family dwellings.Footnote 3 Despite the decline in employment in construction for October, a number of construction projects were recently announced, including the expansion of the York Viva Bus Rapid Transit rapidways, which is expected to create about 14,000 construction jobs over the next four years.Footnote 4

The provincial manufacturing industry regained some ground in October with the addition of 10,800 in employment. Provincial manufacturing sales meanwhile continued its recent positive trend, increasing for the third consecutive month, with a 1.1% gain in August 2015. Footnote 5 Although the Canadian share of North American light vehicle production has fallen on a year-to-date basis,Footnote 6 positive news came from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles as it announced hiring of an unspecified number of positions at its Windsor assembly plant. Footnote 7 Also, General Motors of Canada Ltd. announced that it expects to hire over 200 people at its CAMI assembly plant in Ingersoll. Footnote 8

From October 2014 to October 2015, employment in the goods-producing sector increased by 6,100, with the largest gains coming from the forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas industry (+9,800).

Services-producing sector reached highest employment level for 2015

Employment increased in the services-producing sector by 32,500 in October, recording its fourth increase in the past six months. The trade industry had the largest employment gain (+16,400), while the educational services industry saw the largest decline (-5,400).

The provincial retail industry saw a number of new outlets open up, as well as increased hiring for the upcoming holiday season. Ikea Canada continued its expansion, opening up new pick-up and order point locations in St. Catharines, Whitby and Windsor.Footnote 9 Michaels Stores Inc. opened three new stores this fall in Toronto and Mississauga, Footnote 10 while Best Buy Canada Ltd. started its seasonal hiring in Peterborough. Footnote 11

The public administration industry posted the second largest increase (+11,500) in October, likely reflecting temporary increases in part-time work related to the recent federal election.

From October 2014 to October 2015, employment in the services-producing sector remained relatively unchanged, with the largest increase in the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing industry (+30,600) offset by losses in industries such as the trade industry (-37,800).

Ontario monthly labour force statistics, by industry
Seasonally adjusted data ('000) October 2015 September 2015 October 2014 Monthly variation Yearly variation
Number % Number %
Total employed, all industries 6,937.2 6,908.0 6,929.7 29.2 0.4 7.5 0.1
Goods-producing sector 1,396.8 1,400.1 1,390.87 -3.3 -0.2 6.1 0.4
Agriculture 76.8 75.4 80.7 1.4 1.9 -3.9 -4.8
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 44.5 46.2 34.7 -1.7 -3.7 9.8 28.2
Utilities 45.2 50.6 50.2 -5.4 -10.7 -5.0 -10.0
Construction 484.3 492.7 478.8 -8.4 -1.7 5.5 1.1
Manufacturing 746.0 735.2 746.3 10.8 1.5 -0.3 0.0
Services-producing sector 5,540.4 5,507.9 5,539.0 32.5 0.6 1.4 0.0
Trade 1,036.5 1,020.1 1,074.3 16.4 1.6 -37.8 -3.5
Transportation and warehousing 329.0 323.8 319.1 5.2 1.6 9.9 3.1
Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing 552.4 554.3 521.8 -1.9 -0.3 30.6 5.9
Professional, scientific and technical services 575.5 575.5 555.0 0.0 0.0 20.5 3.7
Business, building and other support services 340.5 343.7 335.4 -3.2 -0.9 5.1 1.5
Educational services 501.1 506.5 501.0 -5.4 -1.1 0.1 0.0
Health care and social assistance 816.6 813.3 810.5 3.3 0.4 6.1 0.8
Information, culture and recreation 313.6 316.2 309.8 -2.6 -0.8 3.8 1.2
Accommodation and food services 440.1 433.4 463.5 6.7 1.5 -23.4 -5.0
Other services 288.7 286.4 278.3 2.3 0.8 10.4 3.7
Public administration 346.3 334.8 370.3 11.5 3.4 -24.0 -6.5

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey – CANSIM Table 282-0088

Regional analysis

Job gains in the province spearheaded by the Toronto economic region

The Toronto economic region continues to lead employment growth in Ontario with a gain of 123,400 between October 2014 and October 2015 (measured on a year-over-year, seasonally unadjusted basis). The region has enjoyed steady year-over-year gains in full-time work since May 2015. Employment and participation rates have also advanced from 12 months ago, a signal that the labour market could be gaining more traction.

However, over the past month, several of the major Canadian chartered banks have announced job cuts in an effort to streamline costs and adjust to new industry technologies. Footnote 12 While the number of workers impacted at this time is hard to determine, the region will likely see some job losses. It is also expected that other large banks will follow suit and more industry-wide job cuts may be on the horizon. Footnote 13 Despite this, the ongoing restructuring efforts have led to some good news for the region. The Bank of Nova Scotia will establish a digital factory in Toronto as it tries to increase its digital offerings to clients. Footnote 14 The factory will employ over 350 technical staff and is set to open in mid-2016. Footnote 15

Employment in the Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula economic region continues to strengthen over the course of the year. The unemployment rate held steady from 12 months ago at 6.0% as a fair amount of new entrants joined the labour force. The region saw a few developments in the local manufacturing industry. Tweed Farms will expand operations in Niagara-on-the-LakeFootnote 16 while job losses will be felt at Trenergy Inc.Footnote 17 and Flowserve Corporation. Footnote 18 In addition, ArcelorMittal Dofasco is launching a new program aimed at educating high school students on advanced manufacturing. Footnote 19 The steelmaker is expected to see a large number of workers retire over the next five years. Footnote 20

Between October 2014 and October 2015, employment gains were also recorded in the London, economic region.

Employment decreased across the majority of Ontario economic regions

Despite the increase in provincial employment between October 2014 and October 2015, employment fell in eight economic regions over this period. While Toronto and the Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula forged ahead, economic regions in northern and eastern Ontario failed to pick up ground. Employment in the Northeast and Northwest economic regions fell by 15,400 over the past year. Northern Ontario continues to be impacted by weakness in the commodity market. KGHM International Ltd. will temporary shut down its McCreedy West mine,Footnote 21 while North American Palladium Ltd. will cut workers at its Lac des Iles mine near Thunder Bay.Footnote 22 In addition, Tenaris Algoma Tubes Inc. will temporarily put 230 workers on layoff in Sault Ste. Marie due to poor market conditions. Footnote 23 While commodity-based firms cope with low prices and weaker demand, other areas have seen some positive developments. Calabrian Corporation is building a new liquid sulfur dioxide manufacturing plant in Timmins, Footnote 24 and Weyerhaeuser Company Ltd. continues to expand operations in Kenora as the demand for wood products picks up. Footnote 25

Even though employment growth in eastern Ontario has been sluggish, the area saw a few positive announcements, especially in wholesale and distribution. In the Muskoka-Kawarthas economic region, BMS Sanitation & Safety Inc. will open a new centre in Peterborough, Footnote 26 while McKesson Canada Corporation opened a new pharmaceutical distribution centre in Trenton in the Kingston-Pembroke region. Footnote 27 In addition, Giant Tiger Stores Limited will move its distribution centre from Ottawa to a larger facility in neighbouring Prescott by 2017. Footnote 28 Also in Ottawa, Thales Canada Inc. opened a new experience centre in the City to foster greater innovative partnerships. Footnote 29

Employment losses were reported in the Stratford-Bruce Peninsula, Windsor-Sarnia, and Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie economic regions as well.

Ontario monthly labour force statistics, by economic region
3-month moving averages
seasonally unadjusted data
Employment Unemployment rate
October 2015
('000)
October 2014
('000)
Yearly variation
(%)
October 2015
('000)
October 2014
('000)
Yearly variation
(% points)
Ontario 6,969.0 6,936.6 0.5 6.8 7.0 -0.2
Economic Regions
Ottawa 690.2 701.7 -1.6 6.5 6.4 0.1
Kingston–Pembroke 200.2 216.5 -7.5 6.1 6.5 -0.4
Muskoka–Kawarthas 157.8 194.1 -18.7 7.1 5.0 2.1
Toronto 3,367.9 3,244.5 3.8 7.3 8.2 -0.9
Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie 716.9 723.5 -0.9 5.2 5.2 0.0
Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula 728.1 711.8 2.3 6.0 6.0 0.0
London 339.2 325.7 4.1 6.6 7.0 -0.4
Windsor–Sarnia 286.4 303.5 -5.6 8.0 7.7 0.3
Stratford–Bruce Peninsula 134.6 152.3 -11.6 6.1 3.5 2.6
Northeast 249.7 260.3 -4.1 7.4 6.6 0.8
Northwest 97.9 102.7 -4.7 5.6 5.2 0.4

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey – CANSIM Table 282-0122

Note

In preparing this document, the authors have taken care to provide clients with labour market information that is timely and accurate at the time of publication. Since labour market conditions are dynamic, some of the information presented here may have changed since this document was published. Users are encouraged to also refer to other sources for additional information on the local economy and labour market. Information contained in this document does not necessarily reflect official policies of Employment and Social Development Canada.

Prepared by: Labour Market Information (LMI) Division, Ontario
For further information, please contact the LMI team.
For information on the Labour Force Survey, please visit the Statistics Canada web site

Footnotes

Footnote 1

Younglai, Rachelle. (November 6, 2015). Economy pumps out 44,000 jobs, boosted by election hiring. The Globe and Mail. Retrieved from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/economy-pumps-out-44000-jobs-unemployment-rate-drops-to-7/article27141264/

Return to footnote 1 referrer

Footnote 2

Gillespie, Patrick. (November 6, 2015). Strong hiring drives unemployment rate to 5% . CNN Money. Retrieved from http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/06/news/economy/jobs-report-october/index.html

Return to footnote 2 referrer

Footnote 3

Statistics Canada. Table CANSIM Table 026-0006.

Return to footnote 3 referrer

Footnote 4

Ministry of Transportation. (September 28, 2015). Ontario Making Progress on York Viva Bus Rapid Transit . Province of Ontario Newsroom. Retrieved from http://news.ontario.ca/mto/en/2015/09/ontario-making-progress-on-york-viva-bus-rapid-transit.html

Return to footnote 4 referrer

Footnote 5

Statistics Canada. Table CANSIM Table 304-0015.

Return to footnote 5 referrer

Footnote 6

Desrosiers Automotive Reports, Volume 29, Issue 20, Oct 2015

Return to footnote 6 referrer

Footnote 7

CBC News staff. (October 26, 2015). Fiat Chrysler Automobiles hiring at Windsor Assembly Plant . CBC News. Retrieved from http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/fiat-chrysler-automobiles-hiring-at-windsor-assembly-plant-1.3288509

Return to footnote 7 referrer

Footnote 8

CTV London staff. (October 13, 2015). Cami plant in Ingersoll looking to hire . CTV London News. Retrieved from http://london.ctvnews.ca/cami-plant-in-ingersoll-looking-to-hire-1.2608101

Return to footnote 8 referrer

Footnote 9

Windsor Square News staff. (October 16, 2015). IKEA Opening Windsor Pick-Up Location . Windsor Square. Retrieved from http://www.windsorsquare.ca/archives/87690/ikea-opening-windsor-pick-up-location

Return to footnote 9 referrer

Footnote 10

Inside Toronto Staff. (October 2, 2015). Michaels celebrates grand opening of downtown Toronto store on John Street. Inside Toronto. Retrieved from http://www.insidetoronto.com/news-story/5942119-michaels-celebrates-grand-opening-of-downtown-toronto-store-on-john-street/

Return to footnote 10 referrer

Footnote 11

Bain, Jason. (October 7, 2015). Grand opening Friday for Best Buy store converted from former Future Shop.. The Peterborough Examiner. Retrieved from http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/2015/10/07/grand-opening-friday-for-best-buy-store-converted-from-former-future-shop

Return to footnote 11 referrer

Footnote 12

Harris, S. (2015, October 23) Scotiabank latest bank to slash jobs and streamline services.. CBC News. Retrieved from http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/td-bank-job-cuts-scotiabank-1.3284524

Return to footnote 12 referrer

Footnote 13

Freeman, S. (2015, October 23). More bank kob cuts to follow Scotiabank, TD:analyst. . Toronto Star. Retrieved from http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/10/23/more-bank-job-cuts-to-follow-scotiabank-td-analyst.html

Return to footnote 13 referrer

Footnote 14

Posadzki, A. (2015, October 16). Scotiabank launches 'digital factory' that will house 350 tech jobs. Globe and Mail. Retrieved from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/scotiabank-launches-digital-factory-that-will-house-350-tech-jobs/article26843317/

Return to footnote 14 referrer

Footnote 15

Ibid.

Return to footnote 15 referrer

Footnote 16

Coles, P. (2015, October 07). NOTL marijuana facility licensed to become largest in Canada.. The Niagara Advance. Retrieved from http://www.niagaraadvance.ca/2015/10/07/notl-marijuana-facility-licensed-to-become-largest-in-canada

Return to footnote 16 referrer

Footnote 17

Fraser, D. (2015, October 06). Trenergy in St. Catharines laying off 60. The St. Catharines Standard. Retrieved from http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2015/10/06/trenergy-in-st-catharines-laying-off-60

Return to footnote 17 referrer

Footnote 18

Gamble, S. (2015, October 07) Flowserve to close Cainsville plant by next June. The Brantford Expositor. Retrieved from http://www.brantfordexpositor.ca/2015/10/07/flowserve-to-close-cainsville-plant-by-next-june

Return to footnote 18 referrer

Footnote 19

Arnold, S. (2015, October 31) Hamilton steelmaker eyes talent for future workforce. The Hamilton Spectator. Retrieved from http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6064183-hamilton-steelmaker-eyes-talent-for-future-workforce/

Return to footnote 19 referrer

Footnote 20

Ibid.

Return to footnote 20 referrer

Footnote 21

Macdonald, D. (2015, October 14). Sudbury PoV: Job losses cause for concern. The Sudbury Star. Retrieved from http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/10/14/sudbury-pov-job-losses-cause-for-concern

Return to footnote 21 referrer

Footnote 22

Sykora, A. (2015, October 01). North American Palladium Reduces Workforce, Cuts Output Guidance. Kitco News. Retrieved from http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-10-01/North-American-Palladium-Reduces-Workforce-Cuts-Output-Guidance.html

Return to footnote 22 referrer

Footnote 23

Petz, S. (2015, October 15). UPDATED: More layoffs at Tenaris. The Sault Star. Retrieved from http://www.saultstar.com/2015/10/15/breaking-more-layoffs-at-tenaris

Return to footnote 23 referrer

Footnote 24

The Timmins Press. (2015, October 09). New industry creating 20 jobs. The Timmins Press. Retrieved from http://www.timminspress.com/2015/10/09/new-industry-creating-20-jobs

Return to footnote 24 referrer

Footnote 25

CKDR 92.7FM Dryen. (2015, September 22). Forestry Rebound in Kenora. Acadia Broadcasting Ltd. Retrieved from http://www.ckdr.net/news/1263686411/forestry-rebound-kenora

Return to footnote 25 referrer

Footnote 26

Harrison, S. (2015, October 14). BMS Sanitation and Safety grand opening Thursday. The Peterborough Examiner. Retrieved from http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/2015/10/14/bms-sanitation-and-safety-grand-opening-thursday

Return to footnote 26 referrer

Footnote 27

Kuglin, E. (2015, October 20). McKesson, Quinte West a natural fit. The Trenton Trentonian. Retrieved from http://www.trentonian.ca/2015/10/20/mckesson-quinte-west-a-natural-fit

Return to footnote 27 referrer

Footnote 28

Dube, D. (2015, September 30). Giant Tiger plans major distribution centre south of Ottawa. The Ottawa Sun. Retrieved from http://www.ottawasun.com/2015/09/30/giant-tiger-plans-major-distribution-centre-south-of-ottawa

Return to footnote 28 referrer

Footnote 29

Pechloff, T. (2015, October 16). Thales Canada opens new experience centre, looking for collaborators. Ottawa Business Journal. Retrieved from http://www.obj.ca/Technology/2015-10-16/article-4312317/Thales-Canada-opens-new-experience-centre,-looking-for-collaborators/1

Return to footnote 29 referrer

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