Labour Market Bulletin - Manitoba: September 2015

This Labour Market Bulletin provides an analysis of Labour Force Survey results for the province of Manitoba, including the regions of Winnipeg, Northern Manitoba and Southern Manitoba.

Overview

Employment

Employment in Manitoba dropped in the third quarter of 2015, with 3,100 fewer people working compared to the previous quarter. Nonetheless, employment remained up 1.0% (+6,500) compared to the same time last year, thanks to strong growth in early 2015. Quarterly losses were entirely in full-time employment (-4,900) while part-time employment increased 1,800.

Public sector employment fell 1,000 in the third quarter, marking the end of a long-term upward trend that began in 2013. Private sector employment saw more significant losses (-2,400) this quarter. However, private sector employment remained up in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the same period last year (+3,200) due to considerable employment gains in late 2014. Meanwhile, the number of self-employed individuals in Manitoba increased 2,200 in the third quarter.

Unemployment

The number of people unemployed in Manitoba grew in the third quarter of 2015 (+700). As a result, the province's unemployment rate rose from 5.5% to 5.6%. Even so, Manitoba retains the second lowest unemployment rate nationwide for the second quarter in a row, and it should remain low in the future. Looking ahead, the Conference Board of Canada expects the provinces unemployment rate to drop to 5.1% in 2016Footnote 1.

Youth unemployment remained high this quarter, with the rate for those aged 15 to 24 averaging 11.1%; more than double the rate of 4.6% for those aged 25 and older. Compared to a year ago, the youth unemployment rate is down 0.5 percentage points. Those aged 55 and older had the lowest unemployment rate (3.5%) among all age groups in the third quarter of 2015.

Looking at trends by gender, the unemployment rate was the highest among young women at 12.0%. Unemployment among young men fell 2.8 percentage points to 10.1%, reaching its lowest rate in six years. Over the year, the unemployment rate for young men has dropped by 4.0 percentage points.

Manitoba Quarterly Labour Force Statistics
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly Data
3rd Quarter 2015 2nd Quarter 2015 3rd Quarter 2014 Quarterly Variation Yearly Variation
Number % Number %
Population 15 + ('000) 988.0 985.7 978.3 2.3 0.2 9.7 1.0
Labour Force ('000) 671.5 673.8 663.0 -2.3 -0.3 8.5 1.3
Employment ('000) 633.6 636.7 627.1 -3.1 -0.5 6.5 1.0
Full-Time ('000) 510.6 515.5 504.7 -4.9 -1.0 5.9 1.2
Part-Time ('000) 123.0 121.2 122.4 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.5
Unemployment ('000) 37.8 37.1 35.9 0.7 1.9 1.9 5.3
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 5.5 5.4 0.1 - 0.2 -
Participation Rate (%) 68.0 68.4 67.8 -0.4 - 0.2 -
Employment Rate (%) 64.1 64.6 64.1 -0.5 - 0.0 -

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0087

Manitoba quarterly employment and unemployment rate
Manitoba quarterly employment and unemployment rate. The data table for this graph is located below
Show data table: Manitoba quarterly employment and unemployment rate
Manitoba Quarterly Employment and Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate (%) Employment ('000)
3Q2009 5.4 602.6
4Q2009 5.5 633.9
1Q2010 5.6 602.3
2Q2010 5.5 609.3
3Q2010 5.5 611.9
4Q2010 5.1 612.5
1Q2011 5.5 611.4
2Q2011 5.6 610.1
3Q2011 5.5 611.1
4Q2011 5.5 613.3
1Q2012 5.5 616.0
2Q2012 5.2 621.5
3Q2012 5.4 621.8
4Q2012 5.3 626.7
1Q2013 4.8 631.0
2Q2013 5.5 625.8
3Q2013 5.5 625.7
4Q2013 5.7 621.6
1Q2014 5.4 623.4
2Q2014 5.5 622.7
3Q2014 5.4 627.1
4Q2014 5.2 633.9
1Q2015 5.6 636.8
2Q2015 5.5 636.7
3Q2015 5.6 633.6

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

Manitoba quarterly employment growth
Manitoba quarterly employment growth. The data table for this graph is located below
Show data table: Manitoba quarterly employment growth
Manitoba Quarterly Employment Growth
Manitoba Canada
3Q2009 0.4% 0.0%
4Q2009 -0.3% 0.5%
1Q2010 0.3% 0.5%
2Q2010 1.2% 0.7%
3Q2010 0.4% 0.2%
4Q2010 0.1% 0.3%
1Q2011 -0.2% 0.5%
2Q2011 -0.2% 0.3%
3Q2011 0.2% 0.4%
4Q2011 0.4% 0.0%
1Q2012 0.4% 0.1%
2Q2012 0.9% 0.9%
3Q2012 0.0% 0.2%
4Q2012 0.8% 0.5%
1Q2013 0.7% 0.3%
2Q2013 -0.8% 0.3%
3Q2013 0.0% 0.2%
4Q2013 -0.7% 0.2%
1Q2014 0.3% 0.2%
2Q2014 -0.1% 0.0%
3Q2014 0.7% 0.2%
4Q2014 1.1% 0.4%
1Q2015 0.5% 0.2%
2Q2015 0.0% 0.2%
3Q2015 -0.5% 0.2%
Manitoba Quarterly Unemployment Rates, by Gender and Age
Seasonally Adjusted Data 3rd Quarter 2015 2nd Quarter 2015 3rd Quarter 2014 Quarterly Variation
(% points)
Yearly Variation
(% points)
Total 5.6 5.5 5.4 0.1 0.2
25 years and over 4.6 4.4 4.2 0.3 0.4
Men - 25 years and over 4.3 4.3 4.1 0.0 0.2
Women - 25 years and over 5.0 4.5 4.3 0.5 0.7
15 to 24 years 11.1 11.5 11.4 -0.5 -0.3
Men - 15 to 24 years 10.1 12.9 14.2 -2.8 -4.0
Women - 15 to 24 years 12.0 10.0 8.3 2.0 3.8

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0087

Employment by industry

Employment growth was concentrated in Manitoba's goods-producing sector in the third quarter, thanks in part to sizeable gains in the province's agriculture industry (+1,000). This increase represents the first quarterly employment improvement in the agriculture since 2013. Despite this recent uptick in employment, the industry had 3.7% fewer people employed compared to the third quarter of 2014. Unlike Alberta and Saskatchewan, Manitoba did not experience drought conditions this growing season, and farmers anticipate a record harvest of soybeans this fallFootnote 2. Looking ahead, employment in the industry is likely to resume a long-term downward trend that began three decades ago.

Construction industry employment is largely unchanged this quarter (+600) but remains a key contributor to overall annual growth. Sustained provincial spending on infrastructure, along with other large-scale spending, appears to be keeping construction labour in high demand, offsetting the large decline in the value of building permits in the first half of 2015. The outlook for construction employment in the near-term is positive as core infrastructure investment remains a priority for the province and a number of major hydro projects are scheduled to start in 2015-2016.

Meanwhile, employment in manufacturing fell (-700) for the second quarter in a row. Recovery in the United States and a weakening Canadian dollar have the industry waiting for increased foreign demand to translate into a rise in manufacturing employment. Finally, employment in forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, and gas fell by 100 in the third quarter. Employment in this industry has fallen steadily over the last year, with 27.4% fewer people employed this quarter compared to the third quarter of 2014.

Employment declined 0.6% in the services-producing sector since last quarter, ending six consecutive quarters of growth. The only significant growth within the sector came in accommodation and food services, which employed 1,700 more people this quarter. Moreover, the industry now employs 3,000 more individuals compared to the third quarter of 2014.

The trade industry shrank this quarter, dropping by 1,300. Employment in trade has trended downward since peaking in late 2014. In fact, the trade industry employed 2,200 fewer people in the third quarter of 2015 compared to that same time in 2014. Losses were mainly in retail trade. However, retail's downward trend may see a reversal in coming years. Construction of a 100-store outlet mall recently began in Winnipeg, which will create an estimated 1,300 jobs when it opens for business in early 2017Footnote 3. Supermarket-chain Save-On-Foods also announced plans to open 12 new stores in Winnipeg and an undisclosed number across rural Manitoba over the next three to five years. Each store is expected to create 150 new retail positionsFootnote 4.

Among Manitoba's three public-sector industries this quarter, only public administration saw a decline in employment (-1,100). Educational services (+200) and health care and social assistance (+400) grew slightly, thanks in part to a provincial commitment to reduce the teacher to student ratio in classrooms and to hire more nurses. Among the three industries, only public administration employed fewer individuals on an annual basis (-1,700).

The number of people working in transportation and warehousing decreased (-1,000) this quarter, but still remains close to its peak employment levels that were reached earlier in the year. Indeed, this mid-sized industry has accounted for just over half of all net-employment gains in Manitoba over the past year, while also leading in terms of wage growth.

Manitoba Quarterly Labour Force Statistics, by Industry
Seasonally Adjusted Data ('000) 3rd Quarter 2015 2nd Quarter 2015 3rd Quarter 2014 Quarterly Variation Yearly Variation
Number % Number %
Total employed, all industries 635.4 636.7 627.1 -1.3 -0.2 8.3 1.3
Goods-producing sector 147.2 145.9 148.7 1.3 0.9 -1.5 -1.0
Agriculture 23.2 22.2 24.1 1.0 4.5 -0.9 -3.7
Forestry, fishing, mining,
quarrying,
oil and gas
5.3 5.4 7.3 -0.1 -1.9 -2.0 -27.4
Utilities 8.5 8.1 8.3 0.4 4.9 0.2 2.4
Construction 46.0 45.4 44.7 0.6 1.3 1.3 2.9
Manufacturing 64.2 64.9 64.3 -0.7 -1.1 -0.1 -0.2
Services-producing sector 488.2 490.9 478.4 -2.7 -0.6 9.8 2.0
Trade 91.0 92.3 93.2 -1.3 -1.4 -2.2 -2.4
Transportation and warehousing 38.9 39.9 35.8 -1.0 -2.5 3.1 8.7
Finance, insurance, real
estate
and leasing
31.6 33.4 33.7 -1.8 -5.4 -2.1 -6.2
Professional, scientific
and technical services
26.2 25.8 24.7 0.4 1.6 1.5 6.1
Business, building
and other support services
18.8 19.3 16.0 -0.5 -2.6 2.8 17.5
Educational services 52.3 52.1 50.0 0.2 0.4 2.3 4.6
Health care and social
assistance
101.7 101.3 100.1 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.6
Information, culture and
reccreation
22.6 22.5 22.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 2.3
Accommodation and food
services
42.2 40.5 39.2 1.7 4.2 3.0 7.7
Other services 29.9 29.5 28.7 0.4 1.4 1.2 4.2
Public administration 33.3 34.4 35.0 -1.1 -3.2 -1.7 -4.9

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0088

Regional analysis

Mixed labour market results were observed across Manitoba, with strong annual employment growth occurring in half of the province's economic regions and moderate to severe losses occurring in the other half.

Winnipeg saw employment rise 3.8% year-over-year thanks to gains across services-producing industries. Accommodation and food services jumped 5.9% or 1,700 jobs since third quarter 2014. After receiving a boost over the summer from American tourists attending the FIFA Women's Cup, the industry can expect continued demand as the NHL season gets underway. Winnipeg's unemployment rate dropped to 6.5% from 6.9% the previous year.

Employment grew both in Parklands and Northern (+4.0%) and in Southwest (+2.8%) regions. But this job growth was not sufficient enough to keep up with the number of individuals seeking work as the unemployment rate in both regions rose over the year. Parklands & North region should see increased construction activity in coming years. The Keeyask generating station project is expected to reach peak employment in summer 2016. Furthermore, a $31.7-million research facility will be built in Churchill, and the next step of the 1,000 kilometer long, $3-billion all-season northern road begins.

In contrast, Interlake underwent the largest decrease (-6.9%) in employment among Manitoba's regions this quarter. The region also saw a large yearly unemployment rate increase during the same period; from 4.1% to 6.0%. Losses also occurred in South Central and North Central (-4.7%), along with Southeast (-4.6%). The unemployment rate in South Central and North Central rose two full percentage points - the largest increase in the province - while Southeast's rate rose from 4.3% to 5.6%.

Manitoba Quarterly Labour Force Statistics
Seasonally Unadjusted Data Employment Unemployment Rate
3rd Quarter 2015
('000)
3rd Quarter 2014
('000)
Yearly Variation
(%)
3rd Quarter 2015
(%)
3rd Quarter 2014
(%)
Yearly Variation
(% points)
Manitoba 638.5 630.3 1.3 6.1 5.9 0.2
Economic Regions
Southeast 55.5 58.2 -4.6 5.6 4.3 1.3
South Central and North Central 55.0 57.7 -4.7 5.5 3.5 2.0
Southwest 58.7 57.1 2.8 4.6 3.9 0.7
Winnipeg 386.0 371.9 3.8 6.5 6.9 -0.4
Interlake 47.3 50.8 -6.9 6.0 4.1 1.9
Parklands and Northern 36.1 34.7 4.0 7.0 6.5 0.5

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0122

Manitoba quarterly employment growth
Manitoba quarterly employment growth, by economic reqion Q2-2014 to Q2-2015. The data table for this graph is located below
Show data table: Manitoba quarterly employment growth, by economic reqion Q3-2014 to Q3-2015

Manitoba Quarterly Employment Growth, by Economic Region
Parklands and Northern 4.0%
Winnipeg 3.8%
Southwest 2.8%
Southeast -4.6%
South Central and North Central -4.7%
Interlake -6.9%

Note

In preparing this document, the authors have taken care to provide clients with labour market information that is timely and accurate at the time of publication. Since labour market conditions are dynamic, some of the information presented here may have changed since this document was published. Users are encouraged to also refer to other sources for additional information on the local economy and labour market. Information contained in this document does not necessarily reflect official policies of Employment and Social Development Canada.

Prepared by: Labour Market Information (LMI) Directorate, Service Canada, Manitoba.
For further information, please contact the LMI team.
For information on the Labour Force Survey, please visit the Statistics Canada website.

Footnotes

Footnote 1

Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2015

Return to footnote 1 referrer

Footnote 2

Manitoba farmers almost finished harvesting 'average' crop, Winnipeg Free Press, Staff Writer (October 7, 2015)

Return to footnote 2 referrer

Footnote 3

First outlet mall arrives in Manitoba, Global News, Talia Ricci (September 25, 2015)

Return to footnote 3 referrer

Footnote 4

Save-On-Foods announces it will consider downtown site, Winnipeg Free Press, Wayne Glowacki

Return to footnote 4 referrer

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