Labour Market Bulletin - Manitoba: October 2015

This Labour Market Bulletin provides an analysis of Labour Force Survey results for the province of Manitoba, including the regions of Winnipeg, Northern Manitoba and Southern Manitoba.

Overview

Employment

Manitoba's labour market had another strong showing in October, posting a large month-over-month employment increase (+2,800) for the third month in a row. Employment in the province has recovered from a summer of sustained losses and reached a record-high this October. On a yearly basis, employment in Manitoba grew at a higher rate (+1.2%) than the national average (+0.8%). All told, 7,300 more individuals were employed in the province in October 2015 compared to the same month last year.

Monthly gains were found mostly in part-time employment (+1,700), while the number of individuals employed full-time increased by 1,100. Over the year, the number of people employed full-time is up 4,200 (+0.8%) and those employed part-time by 3,100 (+3.1%).

The majority of growth in October was in public sector employment (+1,300), offsetting minor losses in the private sector (-600). Meanwhile, self-employment increased by 1,900.

Unemployment

The number of unemployed in Manitoba increased in October (+900), and the province's unemployment rate rose correspondingly from 5.2% to 5.3%. Even so, the province now holds the lowest unemployment rate nationwide for the first time since February 2011. Looking ahead, the Conference Board of Canada expects the unemployment rate to drop to 5.1% in 2016. Footnote 1

The unemployment rate among Manitoba youth remained high in October (11.6%). This is nearly triple the rate for those aged 25 and older (4.1%) and 1.3 percentage points higher than the unemployment rate among youth in October 2014. By comparison, the unemployment rate for those aged 55 and older was incredibly low in October 2015 (2.8%).

Looking at trends by gender, the unemployment rate remains highest among young men at 12.3%, while unemployment among young women rose 2.0 percentage points to 10.9%. For those aged 25 years and over, the unemployment rate for both genders is closer to the average for that age group, 4.4% for males and 3.9% for females.

Manitoba Monthly Labour Force Statistics
Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly Data
October 2015 September 2015 October 2014 Monthly Variation Yearly Variation
Number % Number %
Population 15 + ('000) 990.6 989.6 979.7 1.0 0.1 10.9 1.1
Labour Force ('000) 678.0 674.3 667.7 3.7 0.5 10.3 1.5
Employment ('000) 641.8 639.0 634.5 2.8 0.4 7.3 1.2
Full-Time ('000) 519.1 518.0 514.9 1.1 0.2 4.2 0.8
Part-Time ('000) 122.7 121.0 119.6 1.7 1.4 3.1 2.6
Unemployment ('000) 36.2 35.3 33.2 0.9 2.5 3.0 9.0
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.3 5.2 5.0 0.1 - 0.3 -
Participation Rate (%) 68.4 68.1 68.2 0.3 - 0.2 -
Employment Rate (%) 64.8 64.6 64.8 0.2 - 0.0 -

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0087

Manitoba monthly employment and unemployment rate
Alberta monthly employment and unemployment rate. The data table for this graph is located below
Show data table: Manitoba monthly employment and unemployment rate
Manitoba Monthly Employment and Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate (%) Employment ('000)
Oct-2013 5.5 623.3
Nov-2013 5.9 632.3
Dec-2013 5.7 619.6
Jan-2014 5.6 625.2
Feb-2014 5.3 623.4
Mar-2014 5.4 621.5
Apr-2014 5.8 620.5
May-2014 5.5 621.2
Jun-2014 5.1 626.4
Jul-2014 5.2 626.3
Aug-2014 5.5 626.4
Sep-2014 5.5 628.7
Oct-2014 5.0 634.5
Nov-2014 5.1 633.3
Dec-2014 5.4 633.8
Jan-2015 6.0 635.0
Feb-2015 5.6 634.6
Mar-2015 5.4 640.7
Apr-2015 5.5 638.6
May-2015 5.7 635.4
Jun-2015 5.3 636.1
Jul-2015 5.6 632.3
Aug-2015 5.7 635.0
Sep-2015 5.2 639.0
Oct-2015 5.3 641.8

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

Manitoba Monthly Unemployment Rates, by Gender and Age
Seasonally Adjusted Data October 2015 % September 2015 % October 2014 % Monthly Variation
(% points)
Yearly Variation
(% points)
Total 5.3 5.2 5.0 0.1 0.3
25 years and over 4.1 4.4 3.9 -0.3 0.2
Men - 25 years and over 4.4 4.3 3.7 0.1 0.7
Women - 25 years and over 3.9 4.6 4.0 -0.7 -0.1
15 to 24 years 11.6 9.4 10.3 2.2 1.3
Men - 15 to 24 years 12.3 9.9 11.8 2.4 0.5
Women - 15 to 24 years 10.9 8.9 8.6 2.0 2.3

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0087

Employment by industry

Manitoba's services-producing sector remained virtually unchanged in October, with just 600 more people employed than in the previous month. The sector's flat performance can largely be attributed to substantial losses in the province's transportation and warehousing (-1,800) and accommodation and food services (-1,300) industries, which offset gains in a number of other areas. The transportation and warehousing industry has not seen employment growth for five months running. Nonetheless, shipping requirements of a strong provincial manufacturing sector and the introduction of low-cost airline NewLeaf Travel to Winnipeg should positively impact employment trends going forward. Meanwhile, accommodation and food services remains up 2,700 compared to October 2014 as the industry retains a large portion of the employment gains it experienced over the summer.

The business, building, and other support services industry experienced the largest employment growth in the services sector during October (+1,400). The industry employed 21.1% more people in October 2015 than in the same month the previous year. Manitoba's three publicly-funded industries also fared well this month. Employment grew in public administration (+1,200) and educational services (+900), while healthcare and social assistance remained unchanged but stayed at nearly record-high employment levels for the second month running. All three industries employed more people on an annual basis.

Manitoba's goods-producing sector added 1,700 individuals in October after remaining flat for the previous three months. The sector remains down 0.4% over the year in spite of the monthly gain. Leading growth in the sector was the agriculture industry, which employed 1,700 more individuals in October. Year-over-year, agriculture employed 800 more people in October, bucking a long-term downward trend in the industry. Farmers can expect a good return in 2015, as the drought affecting Saskatchewan and Alberta has not impacted Manitoba. Backlogs on Canada's railways have been almost completely cleared, which should help producers move products more easily this year.

Construction was the only other goods-producing industry to see growth in October, with employment up 800. The industry employs virtually the same number of people as last October. The flat growth should be temporary; a BuildForce Canada forecast anticipates employment in the industry will expand and peak in 2016 and 2017, then taper off afterwardFootnote 2. Non-residential construction projects are expected to dominate hiring trends in the short-term.

There was no change in employment in the manufacturing and utilities industries this October. Both industries added more people on a yearly basis though. Finally, forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, and gas employed 200 fewer people in October. Although not as significant an employer in Manitoba as other western provinces, the industry appears to have been negatively impacted by the global downturn in commodity prices. Employment in the industry contracted 27.6% since October 2014.

Manitoba Monthly Labour Force Statistics, by Industry
Seasonally Adjusted
Data ('000)
October 2015 September 2015 October 2014 Monthly Variation Yearly Variation
Number % Number %
Total employed, all industries 641.8 639.0 634.5 2.8 0.4 7.3 1.2
Goods-producing sector 149.3 147.2 149.9 2.1 1.4 -0.6 -0.4
Agriculture 24.0 22.3 23.2 1.7 7.6 0.8 3.4
Forestry, fishing, mining,
quarrying,
oil and gas
5.5 5.7 7.6 -0.2 -3.5 -2.1 -27.6
Utilities 8.6 8.6 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.2
Construction 46.8 46.0 46.9 0.8 1.7 -0.1 -0.2
Manufacturing 64.5 64.5 64.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5
Services-producing sector 492.5 491.9 484.6 0.6 0.1 7.9 1.6
Trade 92.4 92.0 96.1 0.4 0.4 -3.7 -3.9
Transportation and warehousing 36.7 38.5 38.6 -1.8 -4.7 -1.9 -4.9
Finance, insurance, real
estate
and leasing
31.5 31.9 33.6 -0.4 -1.3 -2.1 -6.3
Professional, scientific
and technical services
25.2 25.6 23.9 -0.4 -1.6 1.3 5.4
Business, building
and other support services
20.1 18.7 16.6 1.4 7.5 3.5 21.1
Educational services 53.6 52.7 50.1 0.9 1.7 3.5 7.0
Health care and social
assistance
103.5 103.5 101.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.4
Information, culture and
reccreation
23.1 22.3 21.5 0.8 3.6 1.6 7.4
Accommodation and food
services
41.6 42.9 38.9 -1.3 -3.0 2.7 6.9
Other services 29.2 29.5 29.2 -0.3 -1.0 0.0 0.0
Public administration 35.6 34.4 35.0 1.2 3.5 0.6 1.7

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0088

Regional analysis

Mixed labour market results were observed across Manitoba, with strong annual employment growth occurring in half of the province's economic regions and moderate to severe losses occurring in the other half.

Winnipeg saw employment rise 3.6% year-over-year thanks to gains mainly across services-producing industries. The region's educational services industry employs 8.4% more individuals this October compared to last year as the province continues to lower student-to-teacher ratios in kindergarten to grade 8 classrooms. Accommodation and food services jumped 8.9% or 1,700 jobs since third quarter 2014. The industry can expect continued demand though the winter as the NHL and OHL hockey seasons continue. Winnipeg's unemployment rate dropped to 6.1% from 6.4% the previous year.

Employment grew both in Parklands and Northern (+3.7%) and in Southwest (+2.1%) regions. Parklands and Northern saw its unemployment rate decrease half a percentage point during this time, but the job growth was not sufficient to keep up with the number of individuals seeking work in Southwest and the unemployment rate rose over the year. Parklands & North region should see increased construction activity in coming years. The Keeyask generating station project is expected to reach peak employment in summer 2016. Furthermore, a $31.7-million research facility will be built in Churchill, and the next step of the 1,000 kilometer long, $3-billion all-season northern road begins.

In contrast, Interlake underwent the largest decrease (-6.1%) in employment among Manitoba's regions this quarter. The region also saw a moderate yearly unemployment rate increase during the same period; from 4.5% to 5.0%. Losses also occurred in South Central and North Central (-5.7%), along with Southeast (-1.2%). The unemployment rate in South Central and North Central rose nearly two percentage points - the largest increase in the province - while Southeast's rate rose from 4.0% to 4.8%.

Manitoba Monthly Labour Force Statistics, by Economic Region
3-Month Moving Averages
Seasonally Unadjusted Data
Employment Unemployment Rate
October 2015
('000)
October 2014
('000)
Yearly
Variation
(%)
October 2015
(%)
October 2014
(%)
Yearly
Variation
(% points)
Manitoba 641.3 632.4 1.4 5.6 5.5 0.1
Economic Regions
Southeast 57.3 58.0 -1.2 4.8 4.0 0.8
South Central and North Central 54.4 57.7 -5.7 4.9 3.0 1.9
Southwest 59.3 58.1 2.1 3.7 3.3 0.4
Winnipeg 386.5 373.0 3.6 6.1 6.4 -0.3
Interlake 47.6 50.7 -6.1 5.0 4.5 0.5
Parklands and Northern 36.2 34.9 3.7 5.7 6.2 -0.5

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey - CANSIM Table 282-0122

Note

In preparing this document, the authors have taken care to provide clients with labour market information that is timely and accurate at the time of publication. Since labour market conditions are dynamic, some of the information presented here may have changed since this document was published. Users are encouraged to also refer to other sources for additional information on the local economy and labour market. Information contained in this document does not necessarily reflect official policies of Employment and Social Development Canada.

Prepared by: Labour Market Information (LMI) Directorate, Service Canada, Manitoba
For further information, please contact the LMI team.
For information on the Labour Force Survey, please visit the Statistics Canada website.

Footnotes

Footnote 1

Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2015

Return to footnote 1 referrer

Footnote 2

BuildForce Canada, Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward: Manitoba

Return to footnote 2 referrer

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