Economic Scan – Newfoundland and Labrador: 2024
Demographics
Highlights
In 2024, 545,000 people lived in Newfoundland and Labrador, an increase of 1.2% from 2023 to 2024. Newfoundland and Labrador represents 1.3% of Canada's total population.
Average age of the non-Indigenous population in Newfoundland and Labrador is 45.7 versus 39.1 in the Indigenous population (Census 2021).
- The proportion of seniors aged 65+ is projected to increase from 24.6% in 2024 to 29.7% in 2034.
- In 2024, individuals aged 55 and over accounted for 46.1% of the working-age population. This is projected to reach 48.1% in 2034.
- The proportion of youth (15-29) is projected to decline from 16.1% in 2024 to 15.5% in 2034.
- Most youth work in environments that prevent teleworking, led by retail trade as well as accommodation and food services.
The Indigenous population represents 9.3% of the total provincial population (2021 Census) and faces more challenging labour market conditions. This includes a higher unemployment rate and lower participation rate when compared to the non-Indigenous population.
Recent immigrants (those arriving between 2016 and 2021) accounted for 29.9% of Newfoundland and Labrador’s immigrant population in 2021. The province has placed considerable emphasis on increasing immigration levels to fill labour market gaps. Immigrants have a higher participation rate and a lower unemployment rate when compared to people born in Canada.
99.4% of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians identified English as their first official language (2021 Census), while 0.5% identified the province's other official language, French. Only 0.1% identified a first language that was neither English nor French.
According to the 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability, 30.9% of the provincial population aged 15 and over were persons with disabilities, an increase of 7.3 percentage points compared to the 2017 survey. In comparison, Canada's disability rate increased by 4.7 percentage points to 27.0%. The stronger provincial increase and higher than average disability rate can be tied to an aging population, as disabilities rates increase with age. Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest median age in Canada (48.0 years).
Labour Market Conditions
In 2024...
Employment increased at healthy pace (2.8%)
Unemployment rose moderately (3.0%)
Participation Rate saw solid growth (57.6% to 58.3%)
Employment Rate grew strongly (51.8% to 52.5%)
Newfoundland and Labrador's Unemployment Rate
Show data table: Provincial Monthly Unemployment Rate
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 16.6 |
| 2001 | 16.0 |
| 2002 | 16.7 |
| 2003 | 16.5 |
| 2004 | 15.6 |
| 2005 | 15.2 |
| 2006 | 15.0 |
| 2007 | 13.7 |
| 2008 | 13.3 |
| 2009 | 15.8 |
| 2010 | 14.9 |
| 2011 | 13.1 |
| 2012 | 12.8 |
| 2013 | 11.8 |
| 2014 | 12.5 |
| 2015 | 13.2 |
| 2016 | 13.8 |
| 2017 | 15.2 |
| 2018 | 14.1 |
| 2019 | 12.2 |
| 2020 | 14.4 |
| 2021 | 13.1 |
| 2022 | 11.3 |
| 2023 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | 10.0 |
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Employment increased for the fourth consecutive year, adding 6,700 jobs over the previous year to reach its highest level on record. The growth was mainly in full-time positions. The unemployment rate showed little change, moving from a record low 9.9% in 2023 to 10.0%. Employment growth outpaced labour force growth. Compared to the pre-pandemic conditions of 2019, there were 13,700 more jobs in 2024. However, the labour force has not grown to the same extent (+8,500), mainly due to an aging population.
- Females represented most of the employment gain (+4,900), reaching a record high for the group. In addition, full-time employment and labour force size among females reached new highs, while the female unemployment rate fell to a new low of 7.5%.
Economic Conditions
Newfoundland and Labrador's Economic Drivers in 2024
Population Growth
Retail Sales
Tourism
Show data table: Provincial Monthly Employment and Unemployment Rate
| Year | GDP growth rate |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 1.0% |
| 2022 | -1.9% |
| 2023 | -2.6% |
- The province’s population increased by 1.2% in 2024, reaching its highest level since 1997. Between July 1, 2023 and July 1, 2024, net international in-migration reached a record yearly high (+9,219), while net interprovincial migration was also positive (+598). These changes outweighed losses resulting from deaths exceeding births. The population aged 15-44 years increased (+4,377) for the third consecutive year, following declines from 1992 to 2021. However, it should be noted that the group aged 65 years and older had the fastest growth rate (+2.7%), increasing by 3,558.
- Retail sales reached a record high in 2024, rising by 6.1% over the previous year. Preliminary household income data also shows an increase of 6.1%, driven by wage growth. Sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers (+12.3%) led the increase in spending.
- With respect to tourism, the accommodations sector has recovered from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Room nights sold (+16%), room revenue (+41%), and occupancy rates (+8%) were all up compared to 2019. Interestingly, non-resident visitations were 7% lower than the pre-pandemic conditions of 2019. While non-resident visitors by auto has risen notably (+18%) over the past five years, it remained lower (-13%) for travel by air, despite an increase in inbound non-stop seat capacity to the province (+6%).
Risks to the Newfoundland and Labrador Economy in 2025
- The U.S. has threatened Canada with punishing tariffs that may cover a wide scope of goods and services, changing the country’s relationship with its key trading partner. Beyond this, the threats and reasons for doing so have been constantly changing. This has caused the business sector to halt or reduce investment until the situation becomes much clearer. Also, China has placed tariffs on some goods including a key provincial export, seafood. The province was expected to lead the country in GDP growth in 2025, but this has become less clear due to these tariffs. The province is less exposed than other provinces to the tariff threat, with a relatively high share of exports going to Europe.
- Immigration has been the key reason behind recent gains in population and labour force size. Changes were announced to reduce the number of immigrants in Canada, across all provinces. This has raised concerns by the provincial government that without immigration, the province’s population would decline and potentially affect our long-term sustainability.
Provincial Issues
- The deficit for 2024-25 was expected to be $152M. This has been revised in the fall update to $218M, a change of $66M since the spring Budget. Revenues have fallen slightly faster than expenses. Net-debt for 2024-25 is expected to rise from $17.8B to $18.3B. The provincial government plans to borrow $2.8B for 2024-25, up from $2.2B the year before. Provincial debt relative to the size of the economy is the highest in the country. High debt levels can limit the amount of money available to spend on health care, infrastructure, education, and other services.
- However, falling interest rates and strong demand due to population growth have resulted in a 71% increase in housing starts for 2024. This was the highest number of starts in a year for the province since 2015. Elevated levels are expected to continue into 2025, but growth in construction will be limited by labour shortages. Existing homes for sale are spending less time on the market, indicating continued tightening. The average price for a home in the province was up by 8.9%, showing considerably higher price growth than Canada (+0.9%). Price gains are also expected to rise faster than nationally in 2025 and 2026.
- Newfoundland and Labrador has the oldest population in the country, and is aging faster than any other province. Furthermore, outmigration among younger groups has been a long-term issue, particularly in rural areas. The aging population has resulted in an increased demand for health care services that have resulted in widespread labour shortages and long wait times. Recruitment efforts are being made to help address the issue, but with the health care demands on an upward path, a solution is not likely to happen in the near-term.
Industry Trends
Show data table
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment Change ('000s) |
|---|---|
| Educational services | 3.3 |
| Health care and social assistance | 1.8 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | 1.4 |
| Professional, scientific, and technical... | 0.8 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | 0.7 |
| Business, building and other support... | 0.4 |
| Construction | 0.2 |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | 0.2 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 0.1 |
| Agriculture | 0.0 |
| Other services (except public administration) | 0.0 |
| Public administration | 0.0 |
| Accomodation and food services | -0.4 |
| Utilities | -0.4 |
| Information, culture and recreation | -1.4 |
- Educational services as well as health care and social assistance had the strongest employment growth in 2024, with both industries reaching new highs. Primary and secondary education reached its highest level since 1997, with rising student enrolment and increased investment. Social assistance reached a new high, due to increased focus on early childhood education.
- Accommodation and food services has struggled to rebound to pre-pandemic employment levels. Higher food prices, lower discretionary spending among consumers, and labour shortages have all been challenges.
- Transportation and warehousing showed a small gain to reach a new high. However there were mixed results in the industry. Truck transportation lost 700 jobs, while most other segments had gains.
- Similarly, while forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying and oil and gas gained only 200 jobs, mining and oil and gas reached a new high, while fishing remained at its lowest employment level on record.
Regional Economic Conditions
- Employment in the Avalon Peninsula region reached a new high in 2024. The gain was mainly in full-time work. However, the labour force grew faster, raising the unemployment rate slightly from 2023's record low. Educational services had the strongest gain (+2,000), while accommodation and food services declined (-1,300).
- The unemployment rate fell to its lowest on record in the West Coast-Northern Peninsula-Labrador region, as employment reached a new high. Gains were mainly in the services-producing sector, with accommodation and food services showing the strongest growth (+1,500), rebounding from a poor 2023. Wholesale and retail trade also added jobs (+1,000). Construction had a sharp loss (-800) following two strong years.
- Employment increased in the South Coast-Burin Peninsula and Notre Dame-Central-Bonavista Bay region to reach its highest level since 2018. Males lost jobs (-1,300) while female employment increased (+2,200). Educational services (+1,100) reached a new high, while construction (+500) reached its highest level since 2017. However, wholesale and retail trade had a sharp loss (-900).
Show data table
| Region | Employment Change ('000s) |
|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 6.7 |
| Avalon Peninsula | 3.6 |
| West Coast-Northern Peninsula-Labrador | 2.3 |
| South Coast-Burin Peninsula-Notre Dame-Central Bonavista Bay | 0.8 |
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