Wholesale and retail trade (NAICS 41, 44-45): Quebec, 2025

Workforce characteristics

Men have most of the jobs in wholesale and retail trade (52.9%), which is a similar proportion of their share of jobs in all industries. Part-time work is more prevalent (29.7%) in this sector than in all industries (18.3%). Even though there are fewer women than men who work in the sector, they have a larger proportion of part-time jobs (57.3% compared to 42.7%).

The proportion of young people aged 15 to 24 who have a job in wholesale and retail trade is twice as large (27.9%) than in all industries (13.3%). These young workers are specifically in the retail trade subsector, where they have over one-third (34.2%) of the jobs, specifically in gas stations, clothing, sports, general merchandise and grocery stores. Part-time positions in the industry suit this age group, which is mainly made up of young people who are studying while they work. At the same time, workers aged 55 and over account for nearly one-quarter (23.4%) of the industry's workforce and generally work in wholesale trade at building material and non-store retailers as well as motor vehicle dealers.

Generally in Quebec, there is a lower level of education in wholesale and retail trade than in all industries. There is a larger share of workers who do not have a diploma or only a high school diploma (46.4%). This result can be explained by the large number of young people. By contrast, the number of university graduates or those with a post-secondary certificate or diploma is lower than in all industries.

Employment in the wholesale and retail trade sector has trended down over the past decade. The trajectory of employment is opposite for the pre- and post-pandemic periods. From 2015 to 2019, employment in the sector showed a slight upward trend, which was driven by several factors that were conducive to consumption: low interest rates, job growth, low unemployment rates, population growth and an increase in disposable income. In 2020-2021, the sector faced the consequences of pandemic-related disruptions, with lockdowns, the greater prevalence of online shopping, store closures and supply chain disruptions. Population growth that was driven by immigration also decreased with border closures. As the health crisis eased, the sector, which faced a labour shortage, was unable to get the employees that it had lost during the pandemic to return, as many of them had moved to other sectors. These difficulties were coupled with a loss of purchasing power (rising inflation and interest rates), high household debt levels, and ongoing competition from e-commerce. Although the labour shortage has eased somewhat thanks to a high level of immigration once again, particularly temporary immigration, employment in the sector is struggling to return to its 2019 level.

Between 2023 and 2024, employment even dropped (−2.6%) in Quebec's wholesale and retail trade. This decrease mainly affected retailers who offer products that are more vulnerable to economic conditions because they are considered as less essential. Electronics and appliance (−36.5%), general merchandise (−28.9%), furniture and home furnishing (−26.7%) and sporting goods, hobby, music and book (−23.0%) stores saw drops essentially between one-quarter and one-third of their workforce. In the context of slow economic growth, ever-present inflation and a reduction in purchasing power, consumers are exercising greater caution by reducing their discretionary spending, particularly in sectors offering goods that are deemed non-essential. In the building material retailer and gardening equipment and supplies segment (−15.0%), increases in renovation costs and interest rates, which remained high despite a drop, and difficulties with home ownership appear to have impeded employment in this segment.

Among the segments that saw job gains over the last year, personal and household goods wholesaler-distributors and motor vehicle and parts dealers posted the highest percentage increases, that is, 29.4% and 18.6%, respectively. The wide variety of products that are sold wholesale by the first subsector (clothing, footwear, entertainment systems, home appliances and accessories, personal items, pharmacy products, toiletries, beauty products and miscellaneous items) partly explains its resilience to economic conditions. Among motor vehicle and parts dealers, the end and/or suspension of financial incentives in 2025 that were given to the public to acquire electric or hybrid vehicles would explain the boost in purchases and job growth, which reached a second peak (with the one in 2015) since 2011. Other factors, such as population growth, a drop in interest rates and the recovery of new vehicle supply chains, could also explain the job gains in the subsector.

Over the past year, employment in wholesale and retail trade fell in 10 of the 16 economic regions in Quebec. Proportionately, the largest declines were in Montérégie (−11.3%), Côte-Nord and Nord-du-Québec (−9.3%), Saguenay– Lac-Saint-Jean (−8.6%), Centre-du-Québec (−7.1%) and the Laurentides. The loss of 24,100 jobs (−6.6%) in the Montréal CMA more than offset job gains in the other regions, particularly in Estrie (+4,200; +21.3%), Mauricie (+2,100; +11.4%), Bas-Saint-Laurent (+1,700; +12.4%) and in Gaspésie– Îles-de-la-Madelaine (+1,000; +24.6%).

Sales have been up in the wholesale and retail trade industry over the past decade, except for 2020, and to a greater extent during the post-pandemic period and returned to a more moderate growth rate in 2024. The price effect contributed significantly to higher sales figures. Sales data, which is shown in current dollars, and post-pandemic inflation partly explain that growth. However, among the most fundamental factors that contributed to the sales growth, it is worth noting that the increase in population, which was driven by a high level of immigration, the accumulation of savings during the pandemic and significant salary catch-ups as well as many deferred purchases boosted household consumption as the crisis eased.

These factors caused the industry's gross domestic product, which has been growing for several years in Quebec, to jump in 2021 and continue its upward trend, but it has been less pronounced since then.

The wholesale and retail trade sector continues to deal with the aftermath of economic and societal changes. In the wholesale trade subsector, the economic conditions should further affect the segments that depend on distribution to retailers. The wholesaler-distributor segment, which deals directly with contractors, depends particularly on the vitality of the construction sector. The industry still has high needs, but the ability to carry out projects could affect the demand for building materials and supplies, which would therefore not foster employment within this segment.

In the retail trade subsector, there have been growing signs of weakness since the pandemic. There has been lower consumer spending, especially on non-essential goods, people are not going downtown as often, and there have been company bankruptcies. The difficulties faced by physical stores in the industry can be explained by discretionary sector spending, aggressive or even unfair competing offers on the Internet, and a growing second-hand market. Economic uncertainty can push consumers to decide not to buy products that are considered as non-essential and that they can hold off on or give up. E-commerce, which has changed consumer expectations, should continue to account for a significant share of the industry's sales. To adapt to this context, major retailers are shifting to e-commerce sales warehouses, which help deliver products purchased online directly from the warehouse while bypassing the store. In addition to online company sales, the growth of e-commerce is driven by e-commerce sites (Shein, Temu, Amazon, Alibaba), which provide immediate availability, competitive prices and seamless shopping experiences. Quebec retailers that are lagging behind at that level could create significant market share losses, which would benefit those sites. However, despite the appeal of international platforms, Quebecers are placing more importance on local businesses.

Finally, an increasing number of consumers are turning to the second-hand market, which should continue to gain popularity. Traditional retailers should adapt to this reality by integrating circular economy models in their offerings to tap into spending from a clientele that is mindful of their purchasing power and the planet.

The slowdown of the economic growth expected at the beginning of the forecast period should lead to reduced spending by consumers who, for many, have a high debt level. The vitality of the labour market, which drives consumption, also tends to lose momentum in the context of a trade war with the United States. High household debt, particularly related to mortgages, is likely to significantly reduce purchasing power, while it is estimated that around 60% of fixed-rate mortgage loans will have to be renewed in the coming years. Therefore, this would slow down their consumption during the forecast period. The projections of slowing population growth will also have a negative impact on retail sales. The issue of a labour shortage, which was the main concern for retailers in 2023, is likely to resurface during the forecast period because of the expected significant decline in immigration, particularly temporary immigration. Labour needs will not be limited to retail trade but will also affect those in other sectors that are related to it, such as procurement, warehousing, monitoring, inspection or transport.

Comparison with all industries

The uncertainty surrounding the economic context in 2025 makes it difficult to forecast employment trends for the entire three-year period up to 2027. This situation puts a lot of companies in a wait-and-see position. Investment projects and hiring intentions are put on hold while they wait to receive clearer outlooks to make decisions. The vitality of the machinery, equipment and supplies, personal and household goods, food, beverage and tobacco product and building material and supplies wholesaler-distributor subsectors should maintain higher job growth in the wholesale trade subsector than all industries during the period. However, Quebec's manufacturing sector is particularly vulnerable to tariffs on certain Canadian products that are exported to the United States. Employment in wholesale trade that is strongly linked to this sector would experience the aftermath, mainly in two exporter segments: motor vehicle and parts wholesaler-distributors and miscellaneous product wholesaler-distributors and wholesale agents and brokers.

In the retail trade subsector, the employment downtrend should continue during the forecast period, as previously mentioned. However, the extent of the decline is difficult to determine considering the uncertainty surrounding the economic context.

Employment trends in the industry as a whole will be the result of the growth in its various subsectors. Therefore, during the 2025-2027 period, a slight decrease in employment in the wholesale and retail trade sector is expected, whereas growth is projected for all of Quebec's industries.

For further information

Appendix

Table A1
Geographic Distribution of Employment and Employment Outlook in Quebec, average 2022-2024

Table A2
Workforce Characteristics in Quebec, average 2022-2024