Nova Scotia - Economic Scan: 2024
Demographics
Highlights
In 2024, 1,076,000 people lived in Nova Scotia, an increase of 1.9% from 2023 to 2024. Nova Scotia represents 2.6% of Canada's total population.
The average age of the Indigenous population in Nova Scotia was 37.0 in 2021compared to 44.2 for the non-Indigenous population.
- Seniors aged 65+ are projected to comprise 25.6% of the population in 2034, up from 22.2% in 2024.
- Older workers (aged 55 and up) made up 42.0% of the working-age population in 2024. This proportion is expected to peak at 42.5% in 2027 before declining back to 42.0% in 2034.
- The youth (age 15 to 29) population share is projected to decline from 18.3% in 2024 to 17.5% in 2034.
- Enrolment in the public school system has been growing since the 2016/17 school year and reached 133,531 students in 2024/25, the highest level since 2007/08.
In 2024, there were 92,700 individuals employed in Nova Scotia who were not born in Canada, up by 23.1% from the previous year and accounting for roughly one in every six workers. Of these, 63,000 were landed immigrants while the remaining 29,700 were non-permanent residents or Canadian citizens born outside of Canada.
Due to aging demographics, employment among the Canadian-born population edged down by 0.3% in 2024.
Linguistic diversity in Nova Scotia has been increasing as more immigrants who speak non-official languages move to the province. In 2021, there were 93,440 people in Nova Scotia who had knowledge of non-official languages, with Arabic (13%), Hindi (11%), Spanish (9%) being the most common.
Nova Scotia remains a largely Anglophone province. At the time of the 2021 Census, 89.3% of the population only knew English, while 10.3% had knowledge of both official languages. Three census subdivisions with Acadian roots had rates of bilingualism above 50%: Argyle (56.7%); Clare (68.5%); and Richmond, Subd. C (Isle Madame) (55.7%).
In 2021, the province had the highest prevalence of transgender and non-binary persons in Canada, at 4.8 per 1,000 people. Among Census Metropolitan Areas, Halifax, had the second-highest share, at 6.6 per 1,000 people.
The 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability indicated that Nova Scotia has the highest share of persons with disabilities, at 37.9%, as well as the highest share in every age group under age 75. In 2021, people with disabilities earned an average of $31,700 annually, 33.4% less than their counterparts without disabilities who earned $43,300.
Labour Market Conditions
In 2024...
Employment grew strongly (3.2%)
Unemployment rose sharply (5.5%)
Participation Rate increased slightly (61.5% to 61.8%)
Employment Rate was up slightly (57.6% to 57.8%)
Province's Unemployment Rate
Show data table: Province's Unemployment Rate
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 9.1 |
| 2001 | 9.7 |
| 2002 | 9.6 |
| 2003 | 9.1 |
| 2004 | 8.8 |
| 2005 | 8.4 |
| 2006 | 8.2 |
| 2007 | 8.2 |
| 2008 | 7.9 |
| 2009 | 9.4 |
| 2010 | 9.6 |
| 2011 | 9.0 |
| 2012 | 9.2 |
| 2013 | 9.0 |
| 2014 | 9.1 |
| 2015 | 8.8 |
| 2016 | 8.4 |
| 2017 | 8.5 |
| 2018 | 7.8 |
| 2019 | 7.4 |
| 2021 | 9.9 |
| 2021 | 8.6 |
| 2022 | 6.5 |
| 2023 | 6.4 |
| 2024 | 6.5 |
- Employment growth in Nova Scotia continued its multi-year trend of strong growth in 2024 as the province added 16,000 workers (+3.2%), of whom a disproportionately large share was employed full-time.
- The unemployment rate edged up to 6.5% as the number of labour force participants expanded slightly faster than employment, supported by population growth. The job vacancy rate provides further evidence of a slackened labour market, having declined to 3.3% from its peak of 5.1% in 2022.
- Employment growth is expected to slow to 1.5% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 as population growth stalls. The impacts of tariffs imposed by the United States present a large amount of downside risk that could result in flat or negative job growth.
Economic Conditions
Nova Scotia's Economic Drivers in 2024
Solid population growth
High levels of construction investment
Stabilizing inflation, lower interest rates
Show data table: GDP Growth Rate in Province
| Year | GDP growth rate |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 6.4% |
| 2022 | 3.5% |
| 2023 | 2.0% |
Reviewing 2024...
- Nova Scotia’s real GDP growth slowed from 3.5% in 2022 to 2.0% in 2023. Growth was driven in large part by household consumption, which, in turn, was supported by robust population growth. Exports increased considerably--mostly in services--though this was offset by an increase in imports of nominally similar value. As in all other provinces, population growth outpaced economic growth in 2023, causing GDP per capita to decline.
- Output is expected to have expanded at a similar pace in 2024, landing at or close to 2%, while inflation slowed to the central bank's target range, prompting several interest rate cuts. Consumer spending remained a key source of growth, and investment in building construction surged by 17%. The largest increase was in multiple dwelling buildings, though all other major types of construction spending also posted solid increases. Capital spending by the provincial government has remained at historically high levels for several consecutive years, and is set to increase further, from $1.6B in 2024-25 to $2.4B in 2025-26.
- Population growth decelerated in 2024 and may be flat or negative in 2025. The net gain of residents from other provinces has slowed, while immigration policy changes halved the number of spaces for provincial and Atlantic immigration nominees and aim to reduce number of non-permanent residents.
Risks to the Nova Scotia Economy in 2025
- Tariffs imposed on Nova Scotia exports by its two largest trading partners, the U.S. and China, constitute the biggest risk to the provincial economy in 2025. Of all provinces, N.S. has the lowest degree of economic exposure to American tariffs. Even so, roughly two-thirds of its exports are sent to the U.S.; further, details about their scale, scope, and duration have frequently changed, creating uncertainty. China, which has purchased one-third of N.S. fishery exports in recent years, has also applied a 25% tariff to seafood.
- The abrupt halt of population growth is set to affect economic growth and the labour supply. The recent influx of residents has revitalized the province's aging labour force, boosted consumer spending, and alleviated labour shortages, but also contributed to challenges such as housing unaffordability. Flat population growth in 2025 and 2026 will likely slow GDP growth and cause the labour market to tighten again. However, it will also likely relieve pressures caused by the recent boom.
Regional Issues
- Over the past four years, deteriorating availability and cost of housing has emerged as one of the primary issues facing Nova Scotia households and employers, and has driven up the number of homeless individuals. Recent construction trends and population growth projections indicate that the housing supply has begun to catch up and will continue to do so during the next few years. The construction industry has responded to higher rates of population growth with more housing starts per year but has been constrained at various points by the supply of labour, inflation and shortages of building materials, and high interest rates. As these pressures have eased, the number of starts has accelerated. Further, migration to the province has slowed; there were 1.6 new residents for every housing start in 2024, down from 5.2 in 2022.
- While the labour shortages of 2022 and 2023 have subsided in most sectors, a high number of vacancies continues to affect the health care industry. The need for health care workers has risen because of the growing and aging population. Although significant hiring has occurred, the number of vacancies remains persistently high, negatively impacting the availability of medical services. Similarly, a shortage of early childhood educators has been a drag on the creation of affordable child care spaces, forcing some parents to leave the labour force.
- The influx of tens of thousands of new residents since 2021 has accelerated the rate at which some provincial infrastructure needs replacement or expansion. Reports of severe traffic congestion and overcrowded classrooms, schools, and emergency departments have become more common. Heightened capital spending by the provincial government will address many of these issues but is also projected to push the province’s debt-to-GDP ratio toward 40% by 2029. The position from which the province is starting these investments has been strengthened by the fiscal windfall from four years of faster-than-expected growth.
Industry Trends
Show data table
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment Change ('000s) |
|---|---|
| Public administration | 4.9 |
| Accommodation and food services | 4.6 |
| Health care and social assistance | 4.2 |
| Educational services | 4.1 |
| Construction | 3.6 |
| Utilities | 1.2 |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | 0.9 |
| Other services (except public administration) | 0.6 |
| Information, culture and recreation | 0.4 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | 0.2 |
| Transportation and warehousing | -0.1 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | -0.5 |
| Business, building and other support services | -1.1 |
| Agriculture | -1.7 |
| Manufacturing | -2.1 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | -3.3 |
- In 2024, strong employment growth occurred in many of the industries that have been recently characterized by shortages of workers, suggesting that the supply of labour has been catching up to demand. Despite a decline in tourism visitations to the province in 2024, the number of workers in the accommodation and food services industry rose by 15.2% as job vacancy rates declined and non-labour pressures like restaurant supply inflation eased. Likewise, a 9.3% increase in construction industry employment coincided with fewer job vacancies, more housing starts, and higher levels of construction investment.
- The healthcare and social assistance industry reclaimed its position as the largest industry in the province, surpassing wholesale and retail trade, with employment growth of 5.3%. While job figures suggest intensive recruitment efforts are yielding results, the number of unfilled positions remains persistently high. The number of workers in the educational services industry also increased considerably amid rising elementary and secondary enrolment levels.
- The professional, scientific and technical services sector posted the largest employment decline, ending a multi-year run of strong growth. The job loss was spread across most subsectors within this industry; one notable exception was computer system design services, which continued to add workers at a modest pace.
Regional Economic Conditions
- Halifax accounted for most of the job growth in Nova Scotia in 2024 as the number of workers went up by 5.3%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5% as the labour force expanded at the same speed as employment. Job growth was led by the public administration, health care and social assistance, and construction industries.
- Cape Breton was the only other region in which job growth occurred, as labour market outcomes improved by most measures. The region, which historically has been characterized by outmigration and high unemployment rates, experienced growth in the working-age population (+2.8%), labour force (+7.4%) and employment (+9.3%), while the unemployment rate declined to 9.7%. (-1.8 percentage points).
- The employment level in the North Shore and Annapolis Valley regions was unchanged, while the labour force and working age population continued to increase, albeit at a slower pace. The net result of these changes was an increase in their respective unemployment rates. A sharp contraction of employment in the Southern region caused the unemployment rate to increase from 6.9% to 8.9%.
Show data table
| Employment Change ('000s) | |
|---|---|
| Nova Scotia | 16.0 |
| Halifax | 13.9 |
| Cape Breton | 4.9 |
| North Shore | 0.0 |
| Annapolis Valley | 0.0 |
| Southern | -2.7 |
Download the PDF version (552 KB) of this content.
Page details
- Date modified: