Agriculture–Crop production, animal production and aquaculture (NAICS 111, 112, 1151, 1152): Quebec, 2024

ABOUT THE SECTOR

WORKFORCE

Workforce characteristics

In agriculture, just over two thirds (69.8%) of jobs are held by men. This percentage is undoubtedly higher in reality, as this figure underestimates temporary foreign workers on Quebec farms, who are also more often men, because of the seasonal nature of their employment. The presence of male workers is therefore much greater than in industries, where they occupy an average of 52.5% of jobs.

The workforce is also considerably older. While the proportion of workers aged 55 and over is 21.9% in all industries in Quebec, this age category represents 36% in agriculture. The proportion of young people aged 15 to 24 is similar (14.4%) to the industry average (13.2%). For the 25 to 54 age group, the proportion of agricultural workers is significantly lower (49.6%) than for Quebec workers as a whole (64.9%).

The gap between salaried workers (54.2%) and self-employed workers (45.8%) is widening year after year. The familial workforce is still very much in evidence, especially in livestock production. Many growers own their own farms. This contrasts with the provincial situation, in which the self-employed account for just 11.5% of the workforce. Note that these figures also exclude temporary foreign workers holding wage-earning positions.

RECENT EVOLUTION

In 2023, Quebec's agricultural sector was made up of 28,000 farms employing 52,500 workers. Employment fell by 6.5%, or 3,670 jobs, in one year, and since the last census, in 2021, there has been 1,400 fewer farms. Quebec's share of Canada represents 13% of all Canadian market receipts for 5% of farmland. Quebec's revenues for 2023 are down slightly (by 1.7%) to $11.8G. 2023 was a good year, despite a difficult economic climate in which weather conditions hit some crop harvests hard. Crop insurance payments jumped 128% to $137.6M, offsetting the decline in farm revenue. The good performance of sales in other products, such as livestock, also helped offset the shortfall.

The demand for food, which continues to grow year after year, reaching $65.8G (+9.9%) in 2023, has supported the entire agricultural sector. This increase is closely linked to the rise in food prices, which remains strong, but less so than in 2022. Excluding inflation, the real increase would have been 2.2%, which is close to the population growth rate. The main factors underpinning this demand despite the economic slowdown in 2023 are, firstly, the record high demographic increase supported by immigration, and secondly, the significant influx of tourists, up 38%. These two factors come into play as Quebec consumers see their consumer spending curbed by the impact of successive interest rate hikes on their budgets since 2022.

May 2023 saw frost and drought, and July saw torrential rains that destroyed part of the harvest. As a result, crop insurance paiements more than doubled, to $137.6M, in 2023. Therefore, farming incomes fell sharply in almost all industry sub-sectors. In the cereals group, revenues are down for oats (–44%), rye (–41%) and barley (–28.3%), as well as for berries such as blueberries (–34%) and cranberries (–27%). Hay production revenues also fell (–50%). Maple syrup was not spared either, with revenues down 40%. Revenues from fresh greenhouse vegetables, which were spared by the weather, rose by 12.5%, as did those from the grouping of various small-scale crops, which increased by 26%.

Inflation slowed throughout 2023, but continues to exert pressure on the price of production inputs, affecting producers' costs. Livestock feed accounted for 23% of operating expenses, down 1% but still high. Debt servicing accounts for 14% of expenses, up 4% in 2022 in the wake of successive interest rate increases. Salaries also rose slightly (by 1%), representing 15% of expenses. Despite interesting figures for manufacturing sales and deliveries, up 2.4% in 2023, farm operators have seen their average profits decline over the past two years.

Real GDP for the bio-food industry edged up 0.9% to $29.5G in 2023. This weak performance was partly due to lower revenues from plant crops, which were flooded by the rains that fell during the harvest season. As a result, revenues in the agriculture and fisheries sector fell by 4.9% to $4.3G. This has not prevented investments in agriculture from growing by 6.1% in 2023 to $1.6G. Since 2018, investments in agriculture and fisheries have accounted for around a third of total investment in Quebec's bio-food sector.

The global economic context is gradually returning to normal and exports in the bio-food sector are up 3%. Fears about Ukraine's various exports to global markets have eased, reducing some of the pressure on prices. Russia exported a record volume of grain in 2023 at prices lower than most markets, putting downward pressure on prices per ton, and Quebec was no exception, with a 9% drop in corn prices. The global demand for pork remains in constant decline, driving export prices down by 7%, and sales down 16% to $1.6G in 2023. Note that Quebec exports 98% of its pork production.

The United States remains our main trading partner, accounting for 68% of our bio-food exports, followed by the European Union (7%), China (4%) and Japan (3%). Other countries and high-growth markets account for 10% and 8%, respectively.

The job market has been on a roller coaster ride for several years, but the decline in agriculture in 2023 is significant, at 6.5% to 52,500 jobs. The use of temporary foreign workers is on the rise, with the addition of 1,764 workers (+8%) in 2023. Over three years, 5,420 workers have been added to the agricultural sector, and despite recent announcements to slow down the issuance of work permits, this upward trend is set to continue. There are many reasons for the shortage of agricultural workers, but the long hours in the fields, the hard work and the remoteness of rural areas mean that these jobs are no longer being taken up by Quebecers who were born here or have lived here for many years.

JOB PERSPECTIVES

From 2024 to 2026, employment is expected to grow at a similar rate to all industries. For 2024, a rebound is expected thanks to the anticipated economic recovery. Job prospects are good, but the same challenges remain, as Quebec relies increasingly on temporary immigration to meet its labour needs. Employers in this industry have difficulty attracting and retaining employees because of the rural location of work, the difficult work conditions (long working days, physically demanding work, seasonality, etc.) and wages that are less attractive compared to the industry average. On the other hand, Quebec is reviewing its work permit rules, which could lead to tighter criteria and fewer temporary foreign workers.

The food and beverage processing sector of Quebec's bio-food industry remains the main driver of agricultural growth. Demand for food in Quebec and that of our main partner, the United States, is set to rise over the next few years in the wake of the expected economic recovery and steadily increasing immigration. This not only promotes prospects, but also the modernization of farms. Moreover, both levels of government remain active in this industry, injecting considerable sums of money to promote the development of agricultural production, and more particularly that of the Quebec government in its quest for food self-sufficiency for the province. All measures ( Politique bioalimentaire 2018 –2025 ; Plan d'agriculture durable 2020 –2023 ; Initiative ministérielle "Productivité végétale ," Stratégie de croissance des serres 2020 –2025 , etc .) are aimed at the full development of agricultural resources and the promotion of agricultural employment in modernizing plants.

Quebec wants to attract and retain a changing workforce. Workers aged 55 and over make up 36% of the workforce. Many farmers have already retired in recent years, while others are preparing to do so. They also represent the vast majority of family farms, which predominate in the sector, and where there is a glaring lack of succession. Thus, there are plenty of entrepreneurial and employment opportunities in this sector for those who want to take on new challenges.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION

ANNEX

TABLE A1
Geographic Distribution of Employment and Employment Outlook in Quebec, average 2021-2023